The Future of the Wine Industry in New Zealand: 2025 and beyond

New Zealand’s wine industry has long punched above its weight on the global stage, delivering distinctive, high-quality wines that capture the essence of our stunning land. With an export value of around $2.1 billion (NZ Winegrowers) and an unwavering focus on sustainability, Kiwi wine continues to captivate both local and international markets. Yet, challenges such as climate change, labour shortages, and evolving consumer preferences are reshaping the sector’s trajectory. Below, we’ll dive deep into the details, exploring how NZ’s wine industry is adapting and what opportunities lie ahead for producers and hospitality professionals alike.

Where We Stand:

• Export Value & Star Varietals
  According to NZ Winegrowers, New Zealand wines generated an estimated $2.1 billion in export value in the most recent reporting period. Sauvignon Blanc dominates global perception, representing approximately 86% of total export volume, with Pinot Noir following as the second major export. Behind these marquee grapes, Chardonnay and aromatics (like Pinot Gris and Riesling) are steadily gaining traction, especially in emerging sub-regions that highlight unique soil compositions and microclimates.

• Domestic Consumption & Premiumisation
  Nielsen research shows that while domestic wine consumption remains relatively stable, there’s a clear trend towards premiumisation—fewer bottles purchased overall, but at higher price points. This shift is particularly noticeable among wine enthusiasts who are willing to pay extra for organically certified or biodynamically farmed bottles.

• Sustainability as a Defining Factor
  Over 96% of New Zealand’s vineyard area is certified under Sustainable Winegrowing New Zealand (SWNZ). From low-intervention viticulture techniques to carbon footprint reduction strategies (e.g., solar panels, sheep for weed control), these practices don’t just score environmental brownie points—they act as a potent marketing edge for Kiwi producers in eco-conscious export markets.

Adapting To The Climate

• Temperature Shifts & Harvest Timing
  Research from Otago and Lincoln universities indicates that warmer temperatures in established wine regions, like Marlborough, may accelerate grape ripening. Some growers have already started earlier harvesting to preserve desired flavour profiles—particularly that trademark passionfruit and gooseberry zing in Sauvignon Blanc. In Central Otago, unseasonal frosts are pushing vineyard owners towards more frost protection systems and shifting vine planting to slightly warmer slopes.

• Exploring Heat-Tolerant Varietals
  A handful of vineyards, especially in Hawke’s Bay and North Canterbury, are experimenting with varietals and clones more resilient to temperature extremes and water scarcity. While Pinot Noir and Sauvignon Blanc remain NZ’s marquee grapes, there’s increasing interest in potential newcomers like Albariño, Grüner Veltliner, and other lesser-known grapes that can handle climate fluctuations without sacrificing quality.

• Regenerative & Biodynamic Farming
  The climate conversation goes hand-in-hand with soil health. Vineyards such as Felton Road (Central Otago) and Millton Vineyards (Gisborne) have been at the forefront of biodynamic viticulture, using practices like composting, natural pest deterrents, and minimal irrigation to both protect the land and enhance wine complexity. These methods aren’t purely philosophical; they often result in superior wine quality that can command higher prices, ultimately offsetting the additional labour involved.

Tech & Innovation

Precision Viticulture & AI Monitoring
Several leading wineries, such as Pernod Ricard, have embraced advanced AI technologies to revolutionize vineyard management. For instance, Pernod Ricard's vineyards in Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay deploy AI-driven robots like the Oxin AVT. These machines perform tasks such as leaf removal, mulching, and mowing with unparalleled precision, thanks to their infrared and LiDAR sensors. Likewise, AI-driven software from companies like Integrape allows viticulturists to monitor real-time data—soil composition, vine stress, and water levels—fine-tuning irrigation and pest management down to individual rows. The result? Dramatically reduced pesticide use, operational costs, and resource wastage. This precision approach ensures a more predictable yield, crucial in an era of climate extremes.

Hybrid or Disease-Resistant Grapes
Ongoing R&D, led by institutions such as Plant & Food Research and supported by the Sustainable Farming Fund (administered by MPI), is focused on developing disease-resistant grape clones. These efforts are critical in combating issues like grapevine leafroll disease, which costs the New Zealand wine industry millions annually. Trials involving hybrids aim to maintain New Zealand’s hallmark wine styles while significantly reducing reliance on chemical inputs. These clones are not only resilient to disease but show promise in thriving across marginal sub-regions, offering a safety net as weather patterns grow increasingly unpredictable.

AI-Powered Disease Detection
Pioneering wineries like Saint Clair Family Estate are collaborating with technology leaders such as Integrape and Bitwise Agronomy to pilot the VinEye disease-detection tool. This AI-based solution employs autonomous robots equipped with cameras to identify grapevine leafroll disease, a pervasive issue globally. The innovative approach enhances detection accuracy while replacing labor-intensive manual surveys. With its scalability proven in a 60-hectare trial, the potential for widespread adoption is immense, signaling a transformative shift for New Zealand viticulture.

Experimental Winemaking Techniques
Kiwi winemakers, including those from boutique wineries in Martinborough and Nelson, are experimenting with styles like pétillant-naturel (pet-nat), orange wines, and extended skin-contact whites. These avant-garde techniques resonate with younger, trend-conscious consumers seeking unique flavor profiles. This spirit of innovation differentiates New Zealand from more traditional wine-producing countries, offering a compelling narrative that blends heritage with modernity.

Low-Alcohol & No-Alcohol Trend
Recent market surveys by Nielsen reveal a growing consumer interest in lower-alcohol and no-alcohol wines—a segment that saw a 12% year-on-year increase in supermarket sales across New Zealand. Wineries such as Giesen and Ara have invested heavily in spinning-cone and reverse-osmosis technologies to delicately remove alcohol while preserving aromatics. This niche aligns with broader health-conscious consumer shifts, offering a viable path for NZ producers looking to diversify. Notably, the domestic hospitality scene is embracing these offerings, with many high-end restaurants incorporating “lighter” wine flights to cater to sober-curious patrons.

Regional Spotlights

• Marlborough

  • Signature Grapes: Sauvignon Blanc (still ~75%+ of the region’s plantings), with Pinot Noir and Chardonnay on the rise.

  • Sustainability Leadership: Home to Yealands Estate, renowned for carbon-neutral certifications, solar panel usage, and the iconic Babydoll sheep that manage vineyard grass naturally.

  • Sub-Regional Nuances: Awatere Valley’s slightly cooler, drier climate imparts more herbal, mineral-driven notes to Sauvignon Blanc, differentiating it from the Wairau Valley’s tropical fruit intensity.

• Central Otago

  • Hallmark Variety: Pinot Noir with vibrant red-fruit character and pronounced acidity.

  • Tourism Impact: Cellar doors leverage Queenstown’s adventure tourism flow by offering bike tours, scenic tasting flights, and barrel samplings. This synergy boosts off-peak hospitality revenues.

  • Climate Alerts: Spring frosts remain a perennial threat, spurring widespread adoption of wind machines, frost pots, and even helicopter flyovers to circulate warm air.

• Hawke’s Bay

  • Reds & Chardonnay: Renowned for Bordeaux-style blends, Syrah, and increasingly admired Chardonnay.

  • Collaboration with Local Gastronomy: Well-established farmers markets and orchard tours complement the wine route, showcasing a “grape to plate” philosophy that appeals to gourmet travellers.

  • Winery Alliances: Initiatives like the Gimblett Gravels Winegrowers Association ensure consistency in quality and brand identity, boosting recognition in global markets.

  • Flood Recovery
    In early 2023, Cyclone Gabrielle brought devastating floods to Hawke’s Bay, damaging vineyards and infrastructure across the region. According to data compiled by Hawke’s Bay Wine and the local Civil Defence, over 50 wineries reported crop losses or vineyard inundation, with some estimates suggesting millions of dollars in damage.

• Martinborough (Wairarapa)

  • Small-Scale Craft: Primarily boutique, family-owned vineyards producing Pinot Noir, Pinot Gris, and aromatic whites.

  • Māori Enterprises: Some indigenous-led wineries in the region celebrate tangata whenua heritage, weaving cultural narrative into wine tourism experiences—an angle increasingly sought after by international visitors looking for authentic Kiwi stories.

  • Regional Cuisine: Small towns such as Greytown and Featherston highlight local produce in cafés and restaurants, pairing seamlessly with Martinborough’s artisanal wine approach.

• Gisborne

  • Chardonnay Hub: Famous for rich, full-bodied Chardonnays, though producers like Millton Vineyards (biodynamic pioneers) have also popularised Chenin Blanc and Viognier.

  • Revitalised Reputation: Once overshadowed by Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne is asserting itself through premium small-batch wines, direct-to-consumer cellar door sales, and host-your-own harvest experiences.

• Emerging: Waitaki Valley & Canterbury

  • Cool-Climate Treasures: Both regions produce edgy, mineral-driven Pinot Noir and Riesling. In the Waitaki, limestone-influenced soils add an Old World structure that sets it apart from Central Otago’s heavier schist-based land.

  • Why This Matters: Diversifying into these micro-regions creates brand new wine stories, capturing niche markets and encouraging visitors to explore beyond the classic routes.

Hospitality Implications & Opportunities

• Wider Variety for Wine Lists
  Forward-thinking restaurateurs and beverage managers are ramping up their focus on lesser-known varietals—like Grüner Veltliner, Albariño, or “hero” single-vineyard Pinot Noirs. This not only offers a point of difference but meets the demand of guests craving novelty and authenticity.

• Insights from the Field
  “We’ve seen a noticeable rise in demand for organics—both from discerning locals and international visitors,” says Steve Smith MW, former Craggy Range director and co-founder of Smith & Sheth. “It’s not just a trend; it’s fast becoming an expectation.” Meanwhile, Peter Yealands, founder of Yealands Estate, emphasizes sustainability’s commercial value: “Our mission to produce wines in the most environmentally sustainable way possible has opened doors in markets like Scandinavia, where eco-credentials can be the difference between success and being overlooked.”

• Wine Tourism Integration
  MBIE data confirms that wine tourism contributes significantly to local economies; cellar door visits are increasingly popular, generating off-peak traffic for nearby hotels, B&Bs, and restaurants. By partnering with wineries, hospitality operators can create exclusive tasting dinners, vineyard accommodation packages, or immersive harvest experiences that differentiate them from competitors.

• Upskilling Staff
  Sommeliers, F&B managers, and floor staff can benefit from deeper wine education—especially around sustainability credentials, new regional identities, and the science behind biodynamic viticulture. Savvy staff who can tell engaging vineyard stories often lead to higher customer satisfaction (and increased beverage sales).

• Capitalising on Sustainability
  Consumers (particularly from the US and Europe) increasingly look for eco-conscious brands. Featuring SWNZ or Biogro-certified wines on menus can be a key selling point, allowing hospitality businesses to align themselves with socially and environmentally responsible principles.

• Labour Challenges & RSE Scheme Updates
  Beyond climate issues, labour shortages remain a critical concern across New Zealand’s wine regions. According to MPI, many growers rely on the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme to bring in seasonal workers from Pacific nations. However, industry feedback indicates that ongoing border complexities and housing constraints limit the number of workers available during peak harvest months.

From its early success with pioneering Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc to today’s sophisticated, sustainability-forward operations across multiple regions, New Zealand’s wine industry stands at an exciting crossroads.

For hospitality professionals—be they sommeliers, F&B managers, or event planners—there’s vast opportunity in leveraging the NZ wine story. Curating diverse, premium-focused wine lists, championing vineyard experiences, and emphasising sustainable credentials can help businesses stand out in a crowded market.

With so many visionary wineries, dedicated growers, and vibrant hospitality partnerships on board, the outlook remains undeniably bright.